Transcendent Man

Some of his predictions for the future include:

• In 2020, one personal computer will have the same processing power as a human brain.
• In the 2020s, a computer will pass the Turing Test. The Turing Test is when a human communicates with one person and one machine, and if the person can’t tell which is the machine, then the machine passes the test. This is considered the standard test in A.I. when determining if a machine is conscious or not.
• In the 2030s, nanotechnology will be used to carry out many of our medical procedures, including brain scans, administering medicines and antibiotics, etc.
• In the 2030s, mind uploading will become possible. Mind uploading is when we can upload our brain’s biological data into a computer.
• In the 2040s, through the use of nanotechnology and mind uploading, people will spend most of their time immersed in a virtual reality (Kurzweil has cited the movie The Matrix as similar to how our virtual realities will be).
• In 2045, $1000 buys a computer a billion times more intelligent than every human combined.
• In 2045, The technological singularity occurs as artificial intelligences surpass human beings as the smartest and most capable life forms on the Earth. Humans won’t be able to comprehend what machines are communicating unless they merge their brains with computers (because of how much faster thoughts and information will be processed once we reach this point).

Why does Kurzweil expect so much technological growth within the next half century? It has to do with what he calls the law of accelerating returns. In this law, Kurzweil describes how the rate of change in information systems tends to increase at an exponential rate.

This can be observed in both evolutionary theory (there is exponentially more gene diversity today than there was during the beginning of life, and remember genes are nothing more than encoded information that makes up our biology). And the same phenomena can also be observed in technological growth (technology feeds on technology and gets increasingly more powerful).

For example, today a person in Kenya with a cellphone has more access to information than the U.S. President did 10 years ago. That is how rapidly technology is evolving today. Similarly, during the late 1960s, Kurzweil recalls working with a computer in MIT that was the size of a whole room; today, the technology in most of our cellphones is 100 times smaller but 100 times more powerful.

Kurzweil imagines technologies will continue to get more powerful, more compact, and more affordable. At some point, Kurzweil predicts we will be able to infuse nanotechnology into our bloodstream, technology that is more powerful than the computers we are using right now. This nanotechnology can be used to fight diseases and protect us from illness. As the process continues to develop, we will eventually reach the point of singularity – where technology has completely outpaced the evolution of human life.

In order to adapt to such a new standard-of-living and culture, Kurzweil believes that humans are going to need to fully merge with their technology. It’s hard to imagine what it may be like. Perhaps a Google-like search engine implanted into our frontal cortex, new memory chips being added to our hippocampus, or a high-resolution camera being attached to our occipital lobe. These are just some ideas floating around, but the possibilities are virtually endless.

Interestingly, if you ask your parents or grandparents, they will probably remark on how amazing technology has become over the past few decades. But according to Kurzweil, the children being born today are going to see even more incredible mind-blowing advancements being made throughout their lifetime. It’s all due to this law of accelerating returns, and the idea that technology continues to build off of older technology.

One of the most surprising predictions Kurzweil makes is the notion of immortality. When technology officially outpaces evolution, Kurzweil believes that humans will have the capacity to use this technology to prolong lives indefinitely. Kurzweil imagines an alternative lifestyle where we live in virtual worlds (kind of like the online game “Second Life”). This could be a viable alternative to biological decay and death – and even Kurzweil himself believes that there is a good chance he will be able to live forever in such a world. It would be just like a customizable videogame, where we can choose different avatars and download ourselves into almost any environment we can imagine.

In fact, Kurzweil believes in this notion of immortality so strongly that he keeps himself on a strict medical regimen to improve his chances of living until the singularity hits. According to Transcendent Man, Kurzweil’s health routine used to include 250 pills, 8-10 glasses of water, and 10 cups of tea every day. He has since cut down his pill intake to 150 pills a day – which is still quite the feat. Kurzweil has also teamed up with “anti-aging” doctor Terry Grossman to help prolong his life as far as possible. The two have collaborated on 2 health-related books, their latest called Transcend: Nine Steps To Living Well Forever. It includes various advice and tips on diet, nutrition, aerobics, weight-training, supplements, relaxation, and the future of medicine.

If all of Kurzweil’s dreams come true, he will live forever, and also be able to resurrect an avatar of his Dad who he has been saving information on all of his life. To do this, Kurzweil has literally collected a room full of documents, letters, and photos of his Dad which he believes he can one day use to create a digital file. Perhaps then – in virtual land – he can meet his Dad once again.

Imagine how remarkable this would all be if it could come true.

How much is Kurweil full of it?

If you are reading these ideas and predictions for the first time, I’m sure you’ve thought “Wow!” at least once or twice mixed with some feelings of skepticism and doubt. I agree – these ideas can be hard to swallow. But I think Kurzweil is at least partially right that technology will continue to merge with human life, and the implications might be massive and unpredictable.

Although Kurzweil’s ideas may sound extreme, he is a man with a fairly good reputation of predicting future events and being on the cusp of the latest advancements in technology. When Kurzweil first started, he became known for developing a “text-to-speech” reader for the blind (an invention that won him the National Medal of Technology from then President Bill Clinton). Kurzweil is also widely known in the music industry for his development of Kurzweil synthesizers and electronic keyboards (I’m fortunate enough to say the Kurzweil K2000 was the first electronic keyboard I ever owned).

Kurzweil has received numerous awards from universities and science academies over the years and is typically a well-respected figure in the fields of artificial intelligence and technology.

But the thing I’m most concerned about with Kurzweil’s endeavors is his fear of death, and his seeming motivation to do all of this to save his father. Many of Kurzweil’s critics claim that he is overly optimistic regarding the capabilities of technology over the next century. They also claim that he is underestimating the potential of this technology to be used for evil (think – The Terminator).

Despite Kurzweil’s obvious intelligence, he may be a man ridden with some issues he isn’t willing to accept the reality of. I hope that if his quest for immortality doesn’t come true, that he is a man who can still face his death with dignity.

If you want to learn more about Kurzweil’s personal life and career, Transcendent Man does a good job of going over these personal matters that drive Kurzweil’s genius and more about his theories and ideas on singularity.

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