What If: The Power of Hypotheticals and Counterfactual Thinking

Counterfactual thinking is a psychological concept where individuals imagine alternative outcomes to past events by considering “what if” and “if only” scenarios, contrary to the actual facts.

While this type of thinking can sometimes cause negative emotions like regret or guilt, research has shown there are many functions and benefits too.

Types of Counterfactual Thinking

There are two main types of counterfactual thinking:

• Downward counterfactuals – Imagining worse outcomes than what really happened, often leading to a more positive view of the actual outcome. One example is the “things could be worse” perspective.
• Upward counterfactuals – Imagining better outcomes than what really happened, which can lead to temporary negative emotions, but can also be used to learn, improve, and make smarter choices in the future.

Both types of thinking have their potential benefits. Upward counterfactuals often focus on learning and improvement, while downward counterfactuals help adjust expectations and appreciate what we have.

The Olympic Medal Study

In one famously cited study, researchers found that Olympic athletes who won bronze medals reported being happier than those who won silver medals. This surprising finding is due solely to differences in counterfactual thinking.

Participants who won bronze were more likely to use downward comparisons, “I could’ve won nothing, but thankfully I got third place!” But those who won silver were more likely to think upward, “Damn, I was so close to winning gold, but I came up short!”

Reframing Situations with Counterfactuals

Counterfactual thinking is a type of reframing, it causes you to look at a situation from a different angle, which will often influence your emotional response to the event. Depending on how you look at the situation, you can make it seem better or worse. For example, you may feel relief after a car accident by thinking, “At least no one was seriously hurt,” versus feeling regret by thinking, “If only I wasn’t speeding, then I’d still have my car.”

Of course, negative emotions like regret, shame, and guilt serve a positive function, even though they are a painful reminder that something didn’t work out as we intended. Feeling bad about speeding or driving recklessly before a car accident should motivate you to be more alert and careful in the future, just as feeling bad about a poor performance on a test should motivate you to study harder for the next one. That is, if you listen to your negative emotions and learn from them, not just ignore them or bottle them up and pretend you did nothing wrong.

Upward counterfactuals (imagining how you could’ve done something differently that leads to a better outcome) can create negative feelings, but it’s also a valuable way to analyze, learn, and adapt to similar situations in the future – especially when something is in your power to change.

Successful athletes are often adept at upward counterfactual thinking, especially players who frequently rewatch game footage and ask themselves, “What could I have done differently in this situation?” They are constantly improving and tweaking their game, especially when they find themselves under-performing and they know they need to fix or adjust something.

Baseball is one game with many different variables and players will often simulate specific situations to practice the best ways of responding to it (“bottom of the 9th inning, runner on third with one out, down by one run, left-handed pitcher, etc.”). Nowadays these hypothetical situations can be practiced through virtual reality, but traditionally mental rehearsal has been an effective method too.

Counterfactuals vs. Excessive Rumination

One important reminder is that the goal of counterfactual thinking is to improve your mood or learn something new, not to constantly beat yourself up over past mistakes or make yourself feel worse.

If we aren’t careful, we can fall into a downward spiral of “What if’s?” and “If only’s” that can lead to excessive rumination and a misuse of brainpower and imagination.

Rumination isn’t just reflecting about a negative event, but a constant looping of the same negative thoughts that aren’t leading anywhere constructive.

One way to be more pro-active in your counterfactual thinking is to practice writing about your failures or speaking about them with a loyal friend, coach or therapist. When you express your thoughts through writing or speech, they are often much clearer and goal-oriented than if you’re just letting thoughts pop up in your head without any reason or rhyme to them.

A Hypothetically Better World

Counterfactual thinking is a powerful force that not only facilitates self-improvement but world-improvement as well.

A lot of revolutionary ideas – whether they be new businesses, new scientific projects, or new political systems – started with the simple question, “What if…?” and were built on that possibility of a better world.

We have to be able to imagine alternative realities before we create them.

This isn’t magic woo-woo thinking, it’s basic logic that if we can’t see ourselves taking different paths in life (both as individuals and as a society), then we are destined to continue on the path we are already on.

Your imagination is a sandbox you can play in to seek out different choices and alternatives that you hadn’t previously thought of, but many “what if’s…?” may turn out to be infeasible or don’t stand the test of rational and critical thinking. Remember, you can always veto any thought that enters your mind, so you don’t have to take every single idea too seriously. In fact, you may need to entertain multiple “what if” scenarios before you find the one that really clicks with you and opens a new door.

The good news is you don’t need to have all the answers right now, just have the mindset to be open to new ideas and see where they lead. One of them may change the course of the future.

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